Why is this important
A decrease in the forecast reflects the risks to the bank’s stability and can affect its ability to attract financing. This is a warning signal for investors and depositors against the backdrop of an unstable capital base.
What happened
- The forecast for the issuer’s default rating (IDR) in national and foreign currencies has been reduced to “Negative”, and the ratings themselves have been confirmed at the B- level.
- The viability rating (VR) — B- has also been confirmed, reflecting weak core capitalization.
- The Fitch core capital ratio (FCC) dropped to 4.3% at the end of the first half of 2025 (in 2023: 5.1%) — an extremely low level.
- Fitch indicates: without capital investment from the owner, the bank may not even maintain these indicators.
- The agency expects FCC growth to 5-6% over a two-year period, provided that annual capital inflows are ~2% of RWA.
- More than 90% of Anor’s liabilities are formed from client term deposits — fragmented and sensitive to interest rates.
- Liquid assets at the end of the first half of 2025 accounted for 18% of all assets — this is an adequate level.
What they say
The weakness of capital and the aggressive growth of the balance sheet put the bank’s stability in question. Without significant injections or slowdown in growth rates, ratings may be lowered, — Fitch notes.
Context
Anor Bank is one of the dynamically developing private banks in Uzbekistan, actively increasing its loan portfolio. In 2023-2025, the bank expanded its product line, launched digital services, and actively competed in the retail deposit segment.
In 2022, Fitch had already expressed concern about Anor’s high asset growth without comparable capital growth. In 2025, the regulator strengthened supervision over the capitalization of rapidly growing banks, making Anor’s position more vulnerable.
