Why is this important
Economic growth of 7.6% is one of the highest indicators in the region and significantly higher than global rates. The acceleration is linked to the strengthening of the soum, the growth of gold exports, and the growth of remittances. Exceeding the forecasts of international organizations indicates an underestimation of the potential of the Uzbek economy.
What happened
- Uzbekistan’s GDP grew by 7.6% in January-September 2025 (7.2% in the first half of the year);
- For the same period in 2024, the growth was 6.6%;
- Forecasts for the year: World Bank — 6.2%, ADB — 6.6%, EBRD — 6.7%;
- The Central Bank forecasts a growth of 7-7.5%;
- KAP DEPO analyst Shodibek Kenjayev estimates the actual growth at a minimum of 7.2%.
Growth drivers
- The strengthening of the soum by 6.4% since the beginning of the year, supporting domestic demand;
- Export growth (mainly due to high gold prices);
- Increase in remittances by 24% to $13.9 billion;
- Slowing down inflation to 8%;
- High economic activity in industry and construction.
Analyst evaluation
KAP DEPO analyst Shodibek Kenjayev notes that current figures indicate a real growth of at least 7.2% at the end of the year. The main driver is the strengthening of the soum, which supports domestic demand and increases GDP growth in dollar terms.
International organizations’ forecasts likely reflect a cautious approach and consider the possible weakening of the soum after nine months of strengthening.
Context
Economic growth of 7.6% is an impressive result against the backdrop of the slowdown in the global economy and geopolitical tensions. For comparison: global GDP is growing by about 3%, developed countries — by 1.5-2%.
The strengthening of the soum by 6.4% is a key growth factor. A stronger national currency increases the purchasing power of the population, reduces the cost of equipment and technology imports, and increases nominal GDP in dollar terms.
The growth in gold exports is linked to record prices for precious metals ($3,800+ per ounce). Gold is one of Uzbekistan’s main export commodities, and high prices ensure significant inflow of currency.
Monetary transfers ($13.9 billion, +24%) support consumer demand and contribute to the growth of retail trade and services. The slowdown of inflation to 8% creates favorable conditions for businesses and the population.
The caution of international organizations may be related to the expectation of som exchange rate adjustment after sharp strengthening. However, current data indicate a stable trend due to structural factors: export growth, transfer inflows, and a decrease in dollarization.
