Why is this important
The exchange rate of the national currency influences prices, imports, savings, and financial stability. Reinforcement is a rare trend for the regional market. The strengthening of the sum by 7% means that the supply in the currency market has increased more than the demand for it. For the economy, strengthening is a signal that exports, transfers, investments, and external revenues are growing, and the foreign exchange market is becoming more stable and balanced.
What happened
- The Central Bank reported that in January-October 2025, the national currency of Uzbekistan strengthened by 7%.
- The exchange rate was formed under the influence of the supply and demand for foreign currency in the domestic market, as well as due to the general macroeconomic and external economic situation.
- The regulator’s strengthening is linked to the growth of foreign currency inflow into the country.
Main factors:
- Export revenue growth: businesses earned more foreign currency and sold a significant portion in the domestic market.
- Increasing foreign loans coming through banks.
- The growth of remittances from abroad.
- Growth of foreign investments.
- Import stabilization, thanks to which the demand for currency grows more slowly than its supply.
Numbers and facts
- Export foreign currency earnings for 10 months amounted to $14.5 billion (+18%).
- In the domestic market, $8.1 billion (a total of 56%) of this volume was sold, which is 23% or $1.5 billion more than a year earlier.
- Banks sold $7.3 billion on the domestic foreign exchange market, attracted through foreign loans — a 62% increase or $2.8 billion.
Forecast
- To maintain the stability of the soum exchange rate, exports and inflows of foreign currency must continue to grow.
- At the same time, further dynamics will depend on raw material prices, migrant activity, the global economic situation, business demand for imports, and other external factors.
- To keep the foreign exchange market within the stable framework of the Central Bank, it is necessary to smooth out sharp fluctuations.
Context
In recent years, more and more currency has been coming into the country through exports, migrants’ transfers, and foreign loans — such sources are becoming more stable and larger than before.
Other long-term trends affecting the country’s currency market are also:
- Growth in export activity: especially in raw materials and industrial sectors, which increases foreign exchange earnings.
- Active attraction of external loans: banks bring these funds to the domestic market, increasing the supply of foreign currency.
