Why is this important
The Business Activity Index (BAI) is a fast indicator of how the business environment is changing: payments, stock market activity, the number of operating companies, and trademark registration. An increase in most components indicates increased activity, while a decrease in the exchange component indicates a heterogeneous dynamic within the economy. The regional section allows us to see where the acceleration was maximal and where the growth compared to last year appears weaker.
What happened
- The Center for Economic Research and Reforms reported that in December 2025, the index reached 1,067 points, increasing by 6.7% compared to November and 22.3% compared to December 2024, with an average increase of 9.8% year-on-year in 2025.
- In December, growth compared to the previous month was recorded in all regions, the strongest in Kashkadarya, Syrdarya, Surkhandarya, and Tashkent regions.
- In the structure of the index, the components for interbank transactions, operating business entities, and trademarks increased, while the exchange component decreased.
Numbers and facts
- The average growth of the BAI in 2025 was +9.8% compared to the previous year.
- BAI in December 2025 — 1,067 points: +6.7% compared to November and +22.3% compared to December 2024.
- Changes in BAI components in December 2025 (compared to the previous month): bank-to-bank transactions component: +17.9%, exchange component: −1.3%, operating business entities component: +0.5%, trademark component: +26.3%.
- Regional breakthrough compared to the previous month: Kashkadarya region — +59.9%, Syrdarya — +53.6%, Surkhandarya — +51.9%, Tashkent region — +49.8%.
- Bank and exchange indicators:
- Interbank payment transactions in December 2025 amounted to 7,053.2 thousand, with an increase of +1,075.6 thousand or +17.9% compared to November.
- In 14 regions, the number of banking operations between legal entities increased compared to the previous month, with the largest growth: Karakalpakstan +53.7%, Kashkadarya +45.6%, Surkhandarya +39.2%, Syrdarya +36.7%.
- The exchange component of the BAI in December was 0.9867 points (-1.3%): average volume per transaction +1.1%, number of transactions -3.8%.
- The trading turnover on the Republican Commodity Exchange in December amounted to 8,071 billion soums (+15.6% compared to the previous month).
Business entities and trademarks:
- The component for operating business entities is 1.0047 points (+0.5%).
- The total number of operating business entities in December increased from 493,863 to 496,212 (+2,347).
- Large business: 4,083 (+22 per month).
- Small businesses: 403,767 (monthly +2,305).
- Number of farms: 88,362 (+22 per month).
- The trademark protection index is 1,2627 points (+26.3%); 447 trademarks and trade names have been registered.
Results of 2025 for individual indicators:
- Trading on 34 main types of goods on the exchange for 2025 amounted to 85,239.2 billion soums (+17% or +12,369.8 billion).
- The number of operating business entities as of January 1, 2026: increased by 9.4%, from 453,545 to 496,212, large businesses +11% (from 3,677 to 4,083), small businesses +12.7% (from 358,116 to 403,767), farms −3.7% (from 91,752 to 88,362).
- The number of payment transactions for 2025 is 75,742 thousand, which is 1% less than in 2024 (minus 732.2 thousand transactions).
- In 2025, legal entities registered 4,629 new trademarks and trade names, which is 6.4% less than a year earlier.
Context
- The December growth of the BAI compared to November was primarily due to interbank transactions and a sharp increase in trademark registration activity, while the exchange component declined due to a decrease in the number of transactions.
- Regional dynamics show that the acceleration compared to the previous month was widespread, but most pronounced in several areas, which can affect the distribution of business activity within the country.
- The results of 2025 record different trajectories of components: exchange turnover for basic goods increased, the number of operating entities increased, but payment transactions for the year decreased slightly, and the registration of new trademarks decreased in annual terms.
