Why is this important
The exchange rate forecast influences business and consumer expectations, especially given the ongoing pressure from foreign trade and changes in commodity prices.
What happened
- According to the official exchange rate on September 22, the dollar depreciated by 4.42% since the beginning of the year — to 12,349.87 soums.
KAP DEPO analysts link the strengthening of the sum to several factors:
- a decrease in the dollar index in global markets;
- growth of cross-border transfers;
- a sharp increase in gold exports.
Company forecast:
- until the end of October — about 12,400 soums;
- by the end of 2025 — within the range of 12,510-12,620 soums.
The strengthening of the soum is explained by the discrepancy between the REER and NEER indices:
- REER (real effective exchange rate) reflects the growth of purchasing power;
- NEER (nominal effective exchange rate) indicates pressure from external markets.
What they say
“The current stability of the sum is maintained by internal capital flows and export earnings”, analysts from KAP DEPO stated.
Context
Uzbekistan has significantly increased its gold exports since the beginning of the year, leading to an increase in foreign currency earnings. At the same time, imports increased by 11.8%, but the lag behind export growth allowed the exchange rate to remain within stable limits. The Central Bank has not yet intervened with harsh interventions — the rate has remained at 14%.
