Why is this important
The ADB’s forecast confirms the stability of the economy, but emphasizes the vulnerability of foreign trade and high business costs. This is a signal to the government about the need to diversify exports and strengthen macroeconomic stability.
What happened
- The forecast for Uzbekistan’s GDP growth remains unchanged: in 2025 — 6.6% and in 2026 — 6.7%.
- The inflation forecast also remains unchanged — 8% and 7%, respectively.
- In the first half of 2025, growth accelerated to 7.2% (in 2024 — 6.5%).
- Key growth drivers: tourism (+48.9%), IT (+21.9%), transport (+11.3%), construction (+10.7%), retail trade (+9.7%).
- Budget revenues increased by 19.2%, expenditures — by 13.4%.
- The current account deficit has decreased due to gold exports and migrant transfers.
- In June, the Central Bank purchased 11.1 tons of gold, changing its reserve strategy.
International agencies improved Uzbekistan’s ranking:
- Fitch — raised sovereign rating;
- S&P and Moody’s — changed the forecast from “stable” to “positive”..
The main risks, according to the ADB:
- Intensification of trade wars and a decrease in external demand for products (textiles, agricultural goods, industry).
- Rising fuel and logistics prices due to regional instability.
- Inflationary pressure capable of slowing down domestic demand and leading to tightening monetary policy.
What they say
The ADB report notes that Uzbekistan’s economy “demonstrates resilience due to domestic demand and investment, but requires a cautious macroeconomic policy against the backdrop of external shocks”.
Context
The ADB’s forecast coincides with the World Bank and the IMF’s assessments. In 2024, Uzbekistan’s growth rate (6.0-6.5%) was higher than the average for the Central Asian region. The government adheres to a fiscal strategy for 2026-2028, prioritizing infrastructure and social expenditures.
