Why is this important
Despite the aggressive growth of profits and loan portfolio, international analysts note increased risks — a deterioration in Fitch’s forecast could make it difficult to attract external financing and signal structural vulnerabilities.
What happened
- Net profit: 235.9 billion soums (+134.6%);
- Interest income: increased from 1.0 trillion to 2.3 trillion soums (+120.9%);
- Loan portfolio: increased from 5.9 trillion to 8.8 trillion soums;
- The share of non-performing loans (NPL): increased from 2.5% to 4.3%;
- Fitch Ratings: lowered the issuer’s long-term default rating (IDR) forecast to “Negative”, keeping the rating itself at B‐;
- This rating level is one step higher than CCC+, where an increased probability of default is recorded.
Context
The private banking market in Uzbekistan is actively growing, but is accompanied by risks: growth of NPL, macroeconomic volatility, and liquidity pressure. The worsening Fitch forecast reflects investors’ concerns about the sustainability of individual participants.
