Why is this important
Such stability is “dead”, if there is external interference behind it. It undermines confidence, hinders the planning of exports and imports, creates a risk of a sharp correction and shock for the economy.
What to consider
- Logically, with a chronic trade deficit, the sum should experience pressure downwards.
- The growth of gold and foreign currency inflows (gold, transfers from abroad) helps, but these reserves are accumulated by the Central Bank, not distributed to the market.
- Maintaining the exchange rate administratively is beneficial for the state: it reduces the external debt burden and improves macroeconomic indicators.
- But for business, it’s not the “strong” currency that matters, but its predictability: instability discourages exporters, importers, and investors.
What experts say
A strong economy is not built on the temporary effect of strengthening the currency. Its foundation is trust, predictability, and fair market mechanisms, — believes KAP DEPO Director Farrux Khodjayev.
Context and data
According to the World Bank, since the beginning of the year, the soum has strengthened by approximately 3.5% against the dollar due to the growth of export earnings and inflow of funds.
In the first half of 2025, the current account gap decreased to approximately $156 million, mainly due to decreased deficit and increased transfers. Meanwhile, the country’s external debt is growing: by the middle of the year, the total external debt exceeded $72 billion.
The Central Bank of Uzbekistan continues to maintain a tight monetary policy, stating its intention to suppress inflation and maintain macroeconomic stability.
