Why is this important
The dominance of individuals (36%) in the loan portfolio indicates an increase in consumer demand and the availability of retail lending. However, the high share of consumer loans creates risks for banks during economic downturn. The decrease in lending to industry (-1%) and transport (-6%) indicates problems in the real sector.
What happened
- Banks’ loan portfolio reached 582.2 trillion soums ($48.3 billion) as of October 1, 2025 (+13% year-on-year);
- Individuals account for 36% of the portfolio — 208.6 trillion soums (+23%);
- Industry — 25% (146.3 trillion), decrease by 1%;
- Agriculture — 10% (59.4 trillion), growth by 14%;
- Строительство выросло на 33% до 17,2 трлн сумов;
- Transport and communications decreased by 6% to 32.5 trillion.
Loan portfolio structure
Key trends
Explosive growth in retail lending:
Individuals — 36% of the portfolio (+23% year-on-year). This is due to the growth of real incomes (+11% for 9 months), strengthening of the soum, and high demand for car loans, mortgages, and consumer loans.
Reduction of industrial lending:
Industry — 25% of the portfolio (-1%). The decrease may be due to high interest rates (loans for businesses — 20-25% per annum), strengthening of the soum (exporters lose competitiveness), or banks switching to retail lending with higher returns.
Construction boom:
Construction increased by 33% to 17.2 trillion soums. This is due to active housing construction, infrastructure projects, and the demand for mortgages.
Sustainable growth in agriculture:
Agriculture — 10% of the portfolio (+14%). The state actively supports the agricultural sector with preferential loans, stimulating growth.
Sedimentation in transport:
Transport and communications decreased by 6% to 32.5 trillion. This may be due to the completion of large infrastructure projects or the reorientation of banks to other sectors.
Context
Portfolio growth of 13% is ahead of inflation (8%), which indicates a real increase in lending. However, the dominance of individuals (36%) creates risks: consumer loans are more volatile and sensitive to economic shocks.
A high share of retail loans is characteristic of developing markets, where the population is actively increasing consumption. However, in developed countries, the share of corporate loans is usually higher, as they finance investments and economic growth.
The decrease in lending to industry (-1%) is an alarming signal: the real sector needs financing to modernize and expand production. High rates and the strengthening of the soum reduce the attractiveness of loans for exporters.
The boom in construction (+33%) is supported by state programs for housing construction and mortgage. However, rapid growth creates risks of overheating of the real estate market.
Agriculture (+14%) receives support through preferential loans, but remains vulnerable to weather conditions and fluctuations in raw material prices.
