Why is this important
Топливо — один из ключевых компонентов потребительской корзины и расходов бизнеса, рост цен на который быстро отражается на других товарах и услугах. Инфляционные ожидания населения усиливаются, что может затруднить стабилизацию цен и вести к долговременному ускорению роста цен. Обновлённый прогноз ЦБ на 2025 год вырос до 8,7%, что выше исходных оценок 7‑8%.
Key facts
- From 2 September, Uzbekneftegaz ceased selling AI-80 gasoline through exchange trading.
- The production and/or supply of AI-92 petrol has been increased to compensate for the disappearance of AI-80.
- The Central Bank has already incorporated this factor into its revised inflation forecast and regards abandoning AI-80 as a medium-term inflation risk.
What they say
- Central Bank Chairman Timur Ishmetov emphasised that AI-80 is already impacting inflation statistics, and discontinuing it poses a risk for future price movements.
- There is also an increase in gasoline prices: the annual growth rate of gasoline is 11.1%, with AI-80 gasoline showing a more noticeable rise.
Context
The idea of discontinuing AI-80 has long been discussed as part of efforts to improve environmental fuel standards and shift to higher-octane fuels (AI-92, AI-95). The complete shutdown was initially scheduled for 2025, but this was postponed, and now it is expected that from 2026 only higher-octane fuels will be used. This move is linked to the ‘green economy’ programme and efforts to enhance air quality and reduce pollution.
