Why is this important
The updated economic growth forecast reflects the country’s development expectations for the next year and directly influences economic policy, investment decisions, and budget planning. An increase in the forecast means that analysts see stable growth sources, not temporary fluctuations. This also forms guidelines for business, the banking sector, and Uzbekistan’s international partners.
What happened
- The Center for Economic Research and Reforms reported that Uzbekistan’s economic growth forecast for 2025 will be increased to 7.5%.
- According to the center, the economy will continue to demonstrate high growth rates due to expanding domestic demand, intensifying exports, and increasing investment.
- Real-time operational analysis models and an expanded information database of macroeconomic indicators were used to calculate the forecast.
Numbers and facts
- In 2025, Uzbekistan’s gross domestic product will increase by 7.5%.
- The increase in the forecast compared to the June assessment was 0.8 percentage points.
- The boundaries of the forecast corridor of economic growth for 2025 are defined in the range of 7.3% to 7.7%.
- According to the National Statistics Committee, Uzbekistan’s economy grew by 7.6% in the first nine months of this year.
- During this period, foreign trade increased by almost a quarter, while exports grew by approximately one-third, and investment volume increased by approximately 15%.
- Money transfers increased by 25% compared to last year.
Forecast
- The Business Activity Index, calculated by the Center for Reconstruction and Development, showed a 34.2 percent increase in October compared to October 2024.
- According to the analysis of Google’s search queries for January-October, interest in the “vehicles” category increased by 3 percent, “business and industry” — by 5.9 percent, “purchases” — by 8.1 percent, “finance” — by 9.5 percent.
- The International Monetary Fund expects Uzbekistan’s economy to grow by 7.3 percent in 2025, the World Bank forecasts growth of 6.2%, and the Asian Development Bank forecasts growth of 6.6%.
