Why is this important
Doubling electricity consumption in 10 years requires large-scale modernization of the energy system and attracting large investments. The transition to renewable energy sources, electric heating, and transportation changes the energy consumption structure and reduces gas dependence. This is the largest transformation of the energy sector in the history of the country.
What happened
- Boston Consulting Group forecasts an increase in consumption from 68 to 123 billion kWh by 2035;
- Industry will increase consumption from 27 to 56 billion kWh (more than twofold);
- Population — from 19 to 28 billion kWh, electric heating will add another 10 billion;
- Electric transport will increase from 1.6 to 5.5 billion kWh;
- Data centers will consume up to 9 billion kWh.
Infrastructure plans
To cover the demand, you’ll need:
- 34 GW of new generating capacity (primarily solar and wind energy);
- 9000 km of new power transmission lines;
- More than 30 high-voltage substations;
- About 800 distribution transformer units.
Reforms until 2028
The Government approved the strategic plan for the development of the industry until 2035. It is planned until 2028 :
- Launch of the wholesale electricity market;
- Transition to hourly pricing;
- Implementation of RAB-tariffs (regulation of return on invested capital);
- Attracting private operators to network management;
- Preparing key energy companies for IPO.
Context
The doubling of electricity consumption is linked to industrialization, population growth, and living standards. Industry will double consumption due to the launch of new industries, including metallurgy, chemistry, and processing.
Switching to electric heating (10 billion kWh will be added) will reduce the load on gas infrastructure and reduce CO₂ emissions. The development of data centers (up to 9 billion kWh) will transform the country into a regional IT hub, but will require a powerful energy base.
The construction of 34 GW of new renewable energy capacity is an ambitious task, requiring tens of billions of dollars in investments. For comparison: the current installed capacity of renewable energy sources (excluding hydroelectric power plants) is about 4.7 GW. This means that in 10 years, it is necessary to increase the capacity by 7 times.
Launching a wholesale electricity market and hourly pricing will create a competitive environment and stimulate efficiency. RAB tariffs guarantee profitability for network infrastructure investors. The IPO of energy companies will attract private capital and increase the transparency of management.
