Why is this important
Google’s new estimates suggest that the risk of cryptocurrency hacking using quantum computers could materialize earlier than previously thought. Lower computing power requirements narrow the technological gap between current capabilities and a potential attack. This increases risks to crypto asset security and raises the urgency of transitioning to post-quantum solutions. For the market, this could mean a reassessment of risks and the resilience of blockchain systems.
What happened
- Researchers at Google Quantum AI stated that breaking the cryptography of Bitcoin and Ethereum with quantum computers may require significantly fewer resources than previously estimated.
- The company introduced new attack methods and revised timelines for when the necessary technologies might emerge.
- It was also noted that certain features of the Bitcoin network, including the Taproot upgrade, may increase potential vulnerability.
Numbers and facts
- According to the study, fewer than 500,000 qubits may be required to break cryptography, whereas earlier estimates suggested millions.
- Google describes attack methods requiring around 1,200–1,450 high-quality qubits, significantly lower than previous projections.
- Under the new forecasts, sufficiently powerful quantum computers could emerge by the end of the decade rather than in the mid-2030s.
- The attack could be carried out in real time: when a transaction is sent, the public key becomes exposed, and a quantum computer could derive the private key in about 9 minutes.
- With an average transaction confirmation time of about 10 minutes, the probability of interception could reach 41%.
- Approximately 6.9 million bitcoins are already stored in wallets with exposed public keys, including about 1.7 million early-period coins.
- This is significantly higher than earlier estimates suggesting that only about 10,200 bitcoins could materially impact the market if stolen.
- The Taproot upgrade, introduced in 2021, improved efficiency and privacy but made public keys more accessible on the blockchain, potentially increasing the number of vulnerable wallets.
Context
- For investors and crypto asset holders, security risks may be higher and closer in time than previously assumed.
- Blockchain developers will need to accelerate the adoption of post-quantum cryptography and reconsider security architectures.
- Crypto exchanges and custody services may tighten security requirements and upgrade infrastructure.
- Overall, the market may face a reassessment of trust in existing protection mechanisms and the long-term resilience of cryptocurrencies.
