Why is this important
The improvement in the forecast means that Uzbekistan is recovering faster than expected, but at the same time, inflationary pressure is increasing. The IMF indicates the need for a balanced policy between price growth and price stability.
What happened
- GDP growth in 2025 is expected at 6.8% — this is higher than both the April forecast (5.9%) and the 2024 result (6.5%);
- The forecast for 2026 is increased to 6.0%;
- Inflation, according to IMF expectations, will grow to 9.1% in 2025 — higher than the Central Bank’s forecast (8.7%);
- In 2026, inflation is expected to decrease to 7.1%, but this is still higher than the April forecast (6.5%).
Improved current account deficit expectations:
- in 2025 — 2.4% of GDP (previously — 5%);
- in 2026 — 4.6% of GDP (previously — 4.8%).
What they say
The IMF attributes the acceleration of growth to stable domestic demand, investor activity, and structural reforms. At the same time, inflationary pressures are caused by rising energy prices, complicated logistics, and global risks.
Recommendations
The Fund emphasizes the need to maintain a strict macroeconomic policy: careful budget discipline and a tight monetary policy by the Central Bank to control inflation.
