Why is this important
Inflation expectations reflect how the population and businesses assess future price dynamics and make financial decisions. Their decrease indicates a weakening of inflationary pressure in the perception of economic agents. For the regulator, these data serve as an important benchmark in the formation of monetary policy.
Why is this important
- The expected inflation rate in Uzbekistan has decreased to a new low after seven consecutive months of decline, according to the Central Bank’s survey report.
- The average inflation forecast for the next 12 months was 11.5%, decreasing by 0.2 percentage points compared to October and by 3.2% year-on-year.
- The median indicator of inflation expectations of the population decreased by 0.3% over the month and reached 10%.
- Inflation expectations of entrepreneurs also continued to decline: the average indicator was 10.5%, the median — 9.6%.
Numbers and facts
By region:
- Tashkent region — 12,8%;
- Surkhandarya region — 12,3%;
- Navai region — 12%;
- Tashkent and Khorezm regions — по 10,4%;
- Samarkand region — 10,5%.
By occupation:
- household services — 13,6%;
- pensioners — 12,5%;
- civil servants — 12,1%;
- communal food — 9,3%;
- agricultural sector — 10%;
- tourism — 10,4%.
By income level:
- more than 30 million soums — 17,8%;
- 20–30 million soums — 14,6%;
- from 15 million soums — 12,3%;
- up to 2 million soums — 10,2%;
- 2–4 million soums — 10,5%.
Inflation expectations factors:
- increase in HCS tariffs — 49%;
- rising energy prices — 40%;
- rising food prices — 26%;
- transportation expenses — 24%;
- increase in wages — 23%.
By region:
- Samarkand region — 12,6%;
- Namangan region — 11,3%;
- Jizzakh region — 11,2%;
- Fergana, Bukhara and Tashkent regions — below 10%.
By industry:
- education — 12,4%;
- construction — 12,2%;
- medicine — 12%;
- craftsmen — 8,8%;
- industry — 9,9%.
Inflation expectations factors:
- HCS tariffs — 46%;
- prices for energy resources — 42%;
- transportation expenses — 30%;
- fluctuations in exchange rates — 19%.
Context
- The seven-month decline in inflation expectations indicates a more restrained perception of price increases by the population and businesses.
- The gap in expectations between groups with different income levels shows the uneven perception of inflation.
- The fact that tariffs for utilities and energy resources remain among the key factors indicates that it is these expenditure items that continue to form inflationary forecasts.
