Why is this important
The decrease in expectations for the sixth consecutive month is the result of the Central Bank’s harsh policy (rate 14%), strengthening of the soum ($12,800 to $11,972), and stabilization of food prices. 11.7% — minimum, but above the CB target (5-7%). Income discrepancies: rich (20-30 million) expect 19%, poor (<4 million) — 10.6% — rich see price increases for premium goods and services. Housing and Communal Services (HCS) tariffs (46%) and energy resources (42%) are the main drivers, their growth hits everyone.
What happened
- The population expects inflation at 11.7% (-0.3%), the median at 10.3%;
- Business — 11.1% (-0.6%), median 10%;
- Tashkent leads — 14.5%, Fergana/Andijan/Namangan — 10.4-10.6%;
- Rich (20-30 million) — 19%, poor (<4 million) — 10.6%;
- Drivers: Housing and Communal Services (46%), energy resources (42%), food (27%).
Population
- Average forecast: 11.7% for the next 12 months (-0.3% by September) — the sixth month of decline, the lowest in recent years.
- Median: 10.3% (without changes).
Regions
- Tashkent: 14.5% — leader due to rising prices for housing, services, and food in the capital.
- Tashkent region: 12.6%.
- Kashkadarya: 12,2%.
- Fergana: 10,4% — minimum.
- Andijan: 10,5%.
- Namangan: 10,6%.
The country’s east expects less inflation due to low food prices (local production), weak growth in housing and communal services.
Professions
High expectations:
- Consumer services — 13,4%;
- Trade — 12,6%;
- Tourism — 12,4%.
Low expectations:
- Pensioners — 10%;
- Medical workers — 10,1%;
- Students — 10,9%.
Household services, trade, and tourism see price increases due to rising costs for rent, energy, and transportation. Pensioners, medical workers, and students spend less on premium goods and services.
Income
- 20-30 million a month: 19% — high incomes see price increases for premium goods, services, and real estate.
- 15-20 million: 13,6%.
- less than 4 million: 10.6% — low incomes spend on basic goods (bread, eggs, vegetables), the prices of which are stable.
The discrepancy shows that inflation is uneven: the rich see growth in the premium segment, the poor see growth in basic goods.
Inflation drivers
- Housing and Communal Services: 46% — rising tariffs for electricity, gas, and water hit everyone.
- Energy resources: 42% — rising prices for gasoline, diesel increases transportation costs, prices for goods.
- Food: 27% — price increase for basic goods (bread, meat, milk).
- Salary: 26% — salary increases demand, which pushes prices up.
- Transportation: 25% — increase in bus, taxi, and gasoline tariffs.
Business
- Average prognosis: 11.1% (-0.6%), median 10% (-0.4%).
Regions:
- Khorezm — 12,8%;
- Tashkent — 12,6%;
- Tashkent region — 12,2%;
- Namangan, Jizzakh — 10,1%;
- Andijan — 10,2%.
Industries:
- Culture — 13%;
- Cleavers — 12,4%;
- Construction — 11,9%;
- Agriculture — 9,5%;
- Craft — 10,2%;
- Medicine — 10,3%.
Drivers::
- HCS — 47%;
- Energy resources — 45%;
- Transportation — 33%;
- Raw materials — 28%;
- Taxes — 23%;
- Exchange rate — 21%.
Businesses are more concerned about housing and communal services, energy, and transport than the exchange rate — the soum is strengthening, reducing import costs.
Context
- Sixth month of decline: result of the Central Bank’s harsh policy (rate 14%), strengthening of the soum (dollar from 12,800 to 11,972), stabilization of food prices.
- 11.7% — minimum, but above the target: the Central Bank is aiming for 5-7% inflation. 11.7% — progress, but further reduction is required.
- Income discrepancy: Wealthy people (19%) see higher inflation than poor people (10.6%) — premium goods price faster than basic ones.
- Housing and Communal Services and Energy are the main drivers: tariff increases are hitting the population and businesses. The government plans to increase tariffs to cover the energy system deficit, which could push inflation up.
