Why is this important
The dollar exchange rate fell below 12,100 soums for the first time since the beginning of the year. This is the strongest strengthening of the national currency in recent months. The fall in import prices will accelerate, but exporters will face serious problems with competitiveness. The Central Bank demonstrates the priority of combating inflation over supporting exports.
What happened
- USD: 12,053.46 soums;
- Euro: 14,026.61 soums;
- Pound: 16,085.34 soums;
- RUB: 152.43 soums — the only currency that has increased;
- Chinese yuan: 1,696.38 soums;
- Japanese yen: 78.91 sum;
- Kazakh tenge: 22.42 sum.
Suoum reinforcement drivers
- Record gold prices ensure a massive inflow of export revenue;
- Money transfers reached $13.9 billion in 9 months;
- The Central Bank’s tight monetary policy – the rate of 14% makes deposits in soums extremely attractive;
- Decrease in dollarization — the share of foreign currency deposits fell from 26% to 23%;
- Inflation has slowed to 8%, devaluation expectations are declining.
Why only the ruble increased
The rise of the Russian ruble by 2% to 152.43 soums is due to the strengthening of the Russian currency in the global market amid high oil prices and seasonal growth in energy exports. However, since the beginning of the year, the ruble is still weaker than the sum.
Context
The dollar exchange rate was forecasted to decrease by 56-57 soums by October 28. The actual decrease of 64 soums turned out to be stronger than expected. The exchange rate of 12,053 soums is the historical minimum since the beginning of 2025.
The fall of all major world currencies except the ruble confirms that this is not a correction of the dollar, but a structural and broad strengthening of the sum. Even the Chinese yuan and Kazakh tenge — the currencies of our largest trading partners — have fallen.
For exporters, this is an alarm signal. Uzbek textiles, fruits, and vegetables are becoming more expensive in foreign markets. If the trend continues, export revenue in sum terms will grow slower, and in dollar terms — may even decrease.
The Central Bank is focusing on fighting inflation through strengthening the soum, sacrificing the short-term interests of exporters. This is a classic choice between domestic price stability and export competitiveness.
