Why is this important
Achieving the BBB+ investment rating will open access for Uzbekistan to cheap international capital and attract major institutional investors. Mass privatization and IPO of key assets is a signal of the seriousness of market reforms and an attempt to repeat the Kazakh development scenario.
What happened
- President Mirziyoyev instructed the government to ensure a BBB+ rating by 2030 (now BB+ from S&P);
- By 2028, it is planned to privatize 29 large enterprises, including UzAuto Motors, UMS, Uzmetkombinat, and Navoiazot;
- 12 of the largest companies will enter the market through IPO and SPO in the next three years;
- A strategy for the privatization of state-owned enterprises and banks for 2026-2030 is being developed jointly with the ADB and the World Bank;
- UzNIF is preparing a double listing in Tashkent and London with the placement of up to 75% of shares.
Ranking context
Uzbekistan’s current rating is BB+ from S&P (speculative level). For comparison: in Kazakhstan — BBB- (lower limit of the investment level). Achieving BBB+ will require strengthening macroeconomic stability, reducing the debt burden, and improving the quality of institutions.
Privatization and IPO
The privatization strategy is being developed jointly with the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank and is expected to be approved by the end of 2025. The list includes the country’s largest industrial assets: the car manufacturer UzAuto Motors, the metallurgical”Uzmetcombinat, the chemical Navoiazot, and the telecom operator UMS.
The National Investment Fund (UzNIF), managed by Franklin Templeton, is preparing a double listing on the Tashkent and London stock exchanges. The placement of up to 75% of shares is aimed at attracting institutional investors and increasing market liquidity.
Challenges
Achieving an investment rating will require structural reforms: reducing the state’s share in the economy, strengthening the banking system, increasing the transparency of public finances, and improving the investment climate. The success of the IPO depends on the companies’ readiness for public offering and the interest of international investors.
Mass privatization within three years is an ambitious task, given the complexity of preparing large assets for sale and the need to create a competitive environment at the privatization auctions.
