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Uzbekistan may lose up to 10% of GDP by 2050 without climate adaptation

The World Bank warns that if the authorities of Uzbekistan do not take measures to adapt to climate change, the country's economy may shrink by 10% by 2050.

Why is this important

The threat of a two-digit decline in the economy underscores the urgent need for investment in sustainability, new technologies, and climate action. Without them, risks to infrastructure, agriculture, and water resources could turn into a serious economic blow.

What the report showed

  • Energy sector accounts for 76 percent of greenhouse gases in the republic;
  • Methane from the oil and gas sector accounts for 35% of the total emissions;
  • Climate change is already “consuming” the annual growth of GDP per capita in CA;
  • In 2025-2030, Uzbekistan plans to reduce carbon intensity by 35%, bring the share of renewable energy sources to 40%, and plant 200 million trees per year.

Context

Over the past 20 years, the average temperature in the region has increased by 1.5 °C. The water level in the Amu Darya River has dropped by 30%, in the Syr Darya — by 10%. Uzbekistan is already implementing decarbonization measures, but the scope of existing initiatives may not be sufficient to contain serious climate risks.

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