Why is this important
The sharp increase in the debt burden, especially the corporate component, increases risks to the stability of the external financial sector, especially against the backdrop of global volatility and pressure on the exchange rate.
What happened
- Over the six months, external debt increased by $8.1 billion and reached $72.2 billion.
- Of this amount, $36.8 billion is government external debt, $35.4 billion is corporate debt.
- Public debt increased by $2.9 billion, corporate debt — by $5.2 billion.
- The current account deficit was $156.3 million, which is lower than the level of the same period in 2024.
- The trade deficit decreased by 20% to $6.4 billion due to the growth of exports (+29%) with a moderate increase in imports (+10%).
- Foreign direct investment grew by 42% to $1.6 billion; portfolio investments — to $3.1 billion.
- International reserves have increased: in the first half of the year, foreign currency inflows amounted to $913.1 million, and the increase in gold value brought in about $7.4 billion.
- Net international investment position grew by 23% to $16.9 billion.
What they say
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Jamshid Kuchkarov called the growth of public debt “moderate” and emphasized that borrowed funds are being directed to infrastructure projects and covering the budget deficit.
The IMF mission, as part of the review of Article IV, recognizes the sustainability of the external sector, but draws attention to the vulnerability associated with the obligations of state-owned enterprises and possible “contingent” obligations.
The IMF report also states that with continued macroeconomic discipline and an active reform policy, Uzbekistan will cope with external shocks.
Context
According to the Central Bank, as of September 30, 2025, the “Gross External Debt Position” is published as open statistics. Trade balance data, investment flows, and external debt dynamics are systematically published in the analytical review “Payment Balance, Global Investment Position, and External Debt”.
According to the World Bank and the IMF, the risk of external debt pressure on Uzbekistan remains low at the moment, given the confident growth rates and sufficient reserves. At the end of March 2025, the external debt was estimated at $64.1 billion. In the first quarter of 2025, external debt reached $68.4 billion, and growth was already recorded in both public and corporate debt.
In July 2025, the Fitch rating agency raised Uzbekistan’s rating to BB with a stable outlook, noting the improvement of the investment climate and the maintenance of fiscal discipline.
