Why is this important
DSTI 33% (from 36%) — debt burden is decreasing due to salary growth of +17%, macroeconomic measures of the Central Bank (restriction of loans with high DSTI). Banks 93% — concentration of liabilities in the regulated sector, risk reduction. Microloans are 3%, but the quality deteriorates — the growth of overdue payments, borrowers with multiple loans, systemic risk while income decreases.
What happened
- DSTI decreased to 33% (from 36%);
- Banks – 93%, non-bank loans — 4%, microloans — 3%;
- Risks: growth of borrowers with multiple loans, deterioration of microloans;
- Car loans and mortgages are improving — fewer borrowers with a high burden.
DSTI (Debt Service-to-Income)
- What is this: the ratio of monthly loan payments to borrower’s income.
- 33%: average DSTI for the country (with 36%) — debt burden is decreasing.
- Reasons: salary growth +17%, Central Bank’s macroeconomic measures (restriction on loan issuance with DSTI >50%).
Structure of liabilities
- Banks: 93% (with 81%) — concentration in the regulated sector, risk reduction.
- Non-bank credit institutions: 4% (from 27%) — reduction of the share due to regulation.
- Microloans: 3% (with 10%) — a small share, but the quality deteriorates.
Risks
- Borrowers with multiple loans: the number of people with 2-3+ loans simultaneously is increasing — the risk of non-payment when income decreases.
- Microloans: portfolio quality is deteriorating — growth in overdue payments, 50%+ borrowers with DSTI 26-50% (high burden). Microloans are sensitive to decreased income — a potential systemic risk.
Car loans
- Improvement: the share of borrowers with DSTI >51% decreases — cautious issuance standards.
- Concentration: Most borrowers with DSTI 26-50% — moderate burden.
Mortgage
- Improvement: the share of borrowers with DSTI >51% is decreasing — subsidizing 7%, salary growth +17%.
- Concentration: 50%+ borrowers with DSTI 26-50% — moderate burden.
Microloans
- Deterioration: increase in overdue payments, 50%+ borrowers with DSTI 26-50%, 25% with DSTI >51%.
- The reason: rapid growth in volume, issuing several microloans simultaneously to low-income borrowers.
- Risk: Microloans are sensitive to income reduction (job loss, inflation) — potential systemic risk in case of mass defaults.
Macroпруденциальные меры
- Central Bank: limiting the issuance of loans with DSTI >50%, portfolio quality control, increasing bank capital requirements.
- Result: reduction of DSTI from 36% to 33%, improvement of the quality of car loans, mortgages.
Uncreditedness
- Loans/GDP: below long-term level — market is under-credited, growth potential.
- Moderate load: DSTI 33% — healthy level, does not pose a threat to stability.
Context
- DSTI 33%: decrease from 36% due to salary growth +17%, Central Bank’s macroeconomic measures (limited loans with high DSTI).
- Banks 93%: concentration in the regulated sector — safer than non-bank organizations, microloans.
- Microloans — risk: quality deteriorates (increase in overdue payments, borrowers with multiple loans), sensitive to decreased income — systemic risk during crisis.
- Car loans, mortgages are improving: cautious issuance standards, mortgage subsidies of 7%, salary increases reduce the share of borrowers with a high burden.
- Borrowers with multiple loans: the main risk — if income decreases, they will not be able to service debts and mass defaults.
