Why is this important
The trade imbalance with a key partner indicates the structural vulnerability of the Uzbek economy — dependence on the import of technological and chemical products is increasing, putting pressure on the balance of payments.
What happened
- The total trade turnover with China exceeded $9.7 billion — an increase of 21.1%.
- Exports of Uzbek goods to China during the same period decreased by almost 9% — to $1.24 billion.
- The reason: a decrease in the supply of industrial goods — a decrease of 40.8% according to the National Statistics Committee.
- At the same time, gas exports to China increased by 24.1% and amounted to $494.7 million, making up almost 40% of exports to the PRC.
- Imports from China amounted to $8.45 billion — a 27.3% increase.
- The main increase was made by chemical substances (+37.2%), industrial goods (+29.4%), machinery and transport equipment (+23.8%).
- Imports exploded especially in July and August: $1.32 billion (+71.3%) and $1.47 billion (+52%), respectively.
- In September, the leaders of Uzbekistan and China agreed to double trade to $20 billion, focusing on industrial and agricultural goods.
What they say
The National Statistics Committee explains the decline in exports to China by the decrease in the supply of industrial goods.
Context
According to the results of the first half of 2025, Uzbekistan increased its foreign trade turnover by 16.1%, with China being one of the leading trade partners. Imports from China already occupy a significant portion of Uzbekistan’s foreign trade market: according to January-July data, China accounts for 28.7% of imports. Increased import dependence can exacerbate the currency burden, especially against the backdrop of a decline in export capacity in the non-financial sector.
