{"id":10503,"date":"2025-10-04T13:36:41","date_gmt":"2025-10-04T08:36:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/frank.uz\/bez-kategorii\/adb-warns-about-threats-to-uzbekistans-economy\/"},"modified":"2025-10-04T13:36:41","modified_gmt":"2025-10-04T08:36:41","slug":"adb-warns-about-threats-to-uzbekistans-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/frank.uz\/en\/news-en\/adb-warns-about-threats-to-uzbekistans-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"ADB warns about threats to Uzbekistan&#8217;s economy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Why is this important<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The ADB&#8217;s forecast confirms the stability of the economy, but emphasizes the vulnerability of foreign trade and high business costs. This is a signal to the government about the need to diversify exports and strengthen macroeconomic stability. <\/p>\n<p><strong>What happened<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The forecast for Uzbekistan&#8217;s GDP growth remains unchanged: in<strong> 2025 \u2014 6.6%<\/strong> and in <strong>2026 \u2014 6.7%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>The inflation forecast also remains unchanged \u2014 <strong>8% and 7%<\/strong>, respectively.<\/li>\n<li>In the first half of 2025, growth accelerated to <strong>7.2%<\/strong> (in 2024 \u2014 6.5%).<\/li>\n<li>Key growth drivers: tourism (+48.9%), IT (+21.9%), transport (+11.3%), construction (+10.7%), retail trade (+9.7%).<\/li>\n<li>Budget revenues increased by <strong>19.2%<\/strong>, expenditures \u2014 by <strong>13.4%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>The current account deficit has decreased due to gold exports and migrant transfers.<\/li>\n<li>In June, the Central Bank purchased <strong>11.1 tons of gold<\/strong>, changing its reserve strategy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">International agencies improved Uzbekistan&#8217;s ranking:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Fitch \u2014 raised sovereign rating;<\/li>\n<li>S&amp;P and Moody\u2019s \u2014 changed the forecast from \u201cstable\u201d to \u201cpositive\u201d..<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">The main risks, according to the ADB:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Intensification of <strong>trade wars<\/strong> and a decrease in external demand for products (textiles, agricultural goods, industry).<\/li>\n<li><strong>Rising fuel and logistics prices<\/strong> due to regional instability.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Inflationary pressure<\/strong> capable of slowing down domestic demand and leading to tightening monetary policy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>What they say<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The ADB report notes that Uzbekistan&#8217;s economy \u201cdemonstrates resilience due to domestic demand and investment, but requires a cautious macroeconomic policy against the backdrop of external shocks\u201d.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Context<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The ADB&#8217;s forecast coincides with the World Bank and the IMF&#8217;s assessments. In 2024, Uzbekistan&#8217;s growth rate (6.0-6.5%) was higher than the average for the Central Asian region. The government adheres to a fiscal strategy for 2026-2028, prioritizing infrastructure and social expenditures.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Asian Development Bank has highlighted growing risks \u2014 trade wars, rising inflation, and rising logistics costs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":9309,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_sharing_image":{"poster":"https:\/\/frank.uz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/68e2bd664f61e.jpg","width":1200,"height":630,"template":"2bf59057","mode":"auto"},"_sharing_image_fieldset":{"Dv78f24rp1hU":9309,"YlB8HH34jIzY":"ADB warns about threats to Uzbekistan&#8217;s economy"},"pin_until":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2061],"tags":[2340,2081,2118,2947,2291,2154,3113,3114,2148],"class_list":["post-10503","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-en","tag-adb-en","tag-cb","tag-economics","tag-fitch-en","tag-gdp","tag-inflation","tag-moodys-en","tag-sp-en","tag-trade"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.0 (Yoast SEO v25.9) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>ADB warns about threats to Uzbekistan&#039;s economy &#8212; 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