{"id":12127,"date":"2025-11-02T14:38:31","date_gmt":"2025-11-02T09:38:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/frank.uz\/bez-kategorii\/inflation-fell-to-7-8-the-lowest-since-2017-lower-than-the-central-banks-forecast\/"},"modified":"2025-11-02T14:38:31","modified_gmt":"2025-11-02T09:38:31","slug":"inflation-fell-to-7-8-the-lowest-since-2017-lower-than-the-central-banks-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/frank.uz\/en\/news-en\/inflation-fell-to-7-8-the-lowest-since-2017-lower-than-the-central-banks-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation fell to 7.8% \u2014 the lowest since 2017, lower than the Central Bank&#8217;s forecast."},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Why is this important<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>7.8% inflation \u2014 the success of the Central Bank&#8217;s monetary policy: the strengthening of the soum reduced import prices, the high rate (14%) cooled demand. This is lower than the Central Bank&#8217;s target (8%), which allows for policy easing. However, services are rising rapidly (+14.4% per annum) due to rising salaries and non-tradeable nature. Regional disparity (from 7.1% in Jizzakh to 8.6% in Fergana) reflects local imbalances.   <\/p>\n<p><strong>What happened<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Annual inflation \u2014 7.8% in October (per month \u2014 0.2 p.p., compared to last October \u2014 2.4 p.p.);<\/li>\n<li>Minimum since 2017, lower than the Central Bank&#8217;s forecast (8%);<\/li>\n<li>Monthly inflation \u2014 0.6% (as in September);<\/li>\n<li>For 10 months \u2014 5.7% (-2 p.p. compared to last year);<\/li>\n<li>Products: +0.9% per month, +5.9% for 10 months;<\/li>\n<li>Services: +0.3% per month, +14.4% per annum.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Inflation structure<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Food products:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Monthly: +0.9%;<\/li>\n<li>For 10 months: +5.9%;<\/li>\n<li>Annual: not given (estimated to be around 7-8%).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Non-food goods:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Monthly: +0.4%;<\/li>\n<li>Annual: +5.8%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Services:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Monthly: +0.3%;<\/li>\n<li>Annual: +14.4% \u2014 the fastest growth.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Slowdown drivers<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Soum strengthening:<\/strong> the dollar exchange rate fell from 12,800 to 12,005 (6.2% since the beginning of the year). Imported goods become cheaper, reducing overall inflation. <\/p>\n<p><strong>Strict monetary policy:<\/strong> The Central Bank keeps the rate at 14%, cooling down demand and lending. Deposits in soums are becoming attractive, which reduces consumer spending. <\/p>\n<p><strong>Decrease in import prices:<\/strong> global prices for grain, oil, and industrial goods have stabilized, which reduces import inflation.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Harvest:<\/strong> a good grain, fruit, and vegetable harvest reduced food prices (+5.9% for 10 months against +7-8% last year).<\/p>\n<p><strong>Why services are getting more expensive faster<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Services rose by 14.4% year-on-year \u2014 2 times faster than the overall inflation rate. Reasons: <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Increase in salaries (+19% average salary to 6 million);<\/li>\n<li>Non-tradeable nature of services (barbershops, repair shops, taxis, restaurants) \u2014 does not depend on the strengthening of the sum;<\/li>\n<li>Increase in rental rates, utility tariffs;<\/li>\n<li>Shortage of qualified personnel in the service sector.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Context<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Since 2017<\/strong>, inflation has been at 12-14% since the devaluation of the sum. The decrease to 7.8% is a historic success. <\/p>\n<p><strong>Below the Central Bank&#8217;s forecast:<\/strong> The Central Bank forecasted 8% inflation by the end of 2025. The fact is 7.8% in October, which gives space for further slowdown or achieving the target ahead of schedule. <\/p>\n<p><strong>Comparison with region:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Kazakhstan: inflation is around 8-9%;<\/li>\n<li>Russia: 7-8%;<\/li>\n<li>Kyrgyzstan: 10-12%;<\/li>\n<li>Uzbekistan (7.8%) is among the leaders in inflation control.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Year-end forecast:<\/strong> if the trend continues, annual inflation may decrease to 7.5-7.7% by December, which is lower than the Central Bank&#8217;s target (8%). This will give the regulator arguments to lower the rate in 2026. <\/p>\n<p><strong>Regional disparity:<\/strong> The difference between Fergana (8.6%) and Jizzakh (7.1%) regions of 1.5 percentage points reflects local imbalances: yields, transportation costs, and consumption structure. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Annual inflation slowed in October by 0.2 percentage points per month, for at least 8 years, due to the strengthening of the soum, tight monetary policy, and a decrease in import prices. Monthly inflation, as in September, is 0.6%. Products rose by 0.9% over the month, services \u2014 by 0.3%.   <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":12111,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_sharing_image":{"poster":"https:\/\/frank.uz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/69078fb1cea6a.jpg","width":1200,"height":630,"template":"2bf59057","mode":"auto"},"_sharing_image_fieldset":{"Dv78f24rp1hU":12111,"YlB8HH34jIzY":"Inflation fell to 7.8% \u2014 the lowest since 2017, lower than the Central Bank&#8217;s forecast."},"pin_until":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2061],"tags":[2081,2118,2154,2153],"class_list":["post-12127","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-en","tag-cb","tag-economics","tag-inflation","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.0 (Yoast SEO v25.9) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Inflation fell to 7.8% \u2014 the lowest since 2017, lower than the Central Bank&#039;s forecast. &#8212; Frank.uz<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Annual inflation slowed in October by 0.2 percentage points per month, for at least 8 years, due to the strengthening of the soum, tight monetary policy, and a decrease in import prices. 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