{"id":12378,"date":"2025-11-07T12:21:01","date_gmt":"2025-11-07T07:21:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/frank.uz\/bez-kategorii\/inflation-expectations-updated-minimum\/"},"modified":"2025-11-07T12:21:01","modified_gmt":"2025-11-07T07:21:01","slug":"inflation-expectations-updated-minimum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/frank.uz\/en\/news-en\/inflation-expectations-updated-minimum\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation expectations updated minimum"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3>Why is this important<\/h3>\n<p>The decrease in expectations for the sixth consecutive month is the result of the Central Bank&#8217;s harsh policy (rate 14%), strengthening of the soum ($12,800 to $11,972), and stabilization of food prices. 11.7% \u2014 minimum, but above the CB target (5-7%). Income discrepancies: rich (20-30 million) expect 19%, poor (&lt;4 million) \u2014 10.6% \u2014 rich see price increases for premium goods and services. Housing and Communal Services (HCS) tariffs (46%) and energy resources (42%) are the main drivers, their growth hits everyone.   <\/p>\n<h3>What happened<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>The population expects inflation at 11.7% (-0.3%), the median at 10.3%;<\/li>\n<li>Business \u2014 11.1% (-0.6%), median 10%;<\/li>\n<li>Tashkent leads \u2014 14.5%, Fergana\/Andijan\/Namangan \u2014 10.4-10.6%;<\/li>\n<li>Rich (20-30 million) \u2014 19%, poor (&lt;4 million) \u2014 10.6%;<\/li>\n<li>Drivers: Housing and Communal Services (46%), energy resources (42%), food (27%).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Population<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Average forecast: <\/strong>11.7% for the next 12 months (-0.3% by September) \u2014 the sixth month of decline, the lowest in recent years.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Median:<\/strong> 10.3% (without changes).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Regions<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Tashkent:<\/strong> 14.5% \u2014 leader due to rising prices for housing, services, and food in the capital.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Tashkent region:<\/strong> 12.6%.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Kashkadarya:<\/strong> 12,2%.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Fergana:<\/strong> 10,4% \u2014 minimum.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Andijan:<\/strong> 10,5%.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Namangan:<\/strong> 10,6%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The country&#8217;s east expects less inflation due to low food prices (local production), weak growth in housing and communal services.<\/p>\n<h3>Professions<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">High expectations:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Consumer services \u2014 13,4%;<\/li>\n<li>Trade \u2014 12,6%;<\/li>\n<li>Tourism \u2014 12,4%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Low expectations:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Pensioners \u2014 10%;<\/li>\n<li>Medical workers \u2014 10,1%;<\/li>\n<li>Students \u2014 10,9%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Household services, trade, and tourism see price increases due to rising costs for rent, energy, and transportation. Pensioners, medical workers, and students spend less on premium goods and services. <\/p>\n<h3>Income<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>20-30 million a month:<\/strong> 19% \u2014 high incomes see price increases for premium goods, services, and real estate.<\/li>\n<li><strong>15-20 million:<\/strong> 13,6%.<\/li>\n<li><strong>less than 4 million:<\/strong> 10.6% \u2014 low incomes spend on basic goods (bread, eggs, vegetables), the prices of which are stable.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The discrepancy shows that inflation is uneven: the rich see growth in the premium segment, the poor see growth in basic goods.<\/p>\n<h3>Inflation drivers<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Housing and Communal Services:<\/strong> 46% \u2014 rising tariffs for electricity, gas, and water hit everyone.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Energy resources:<\/strong> 42% \u2014 rising prices for gasoline, diesel increases transportation costs, prices for goods.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Food: <\/strong>27% \u2014 price increase for basic goods (bread, meat, milk).<\/li>\n<li><strong>Salary: <\/strong>26% \u2014 salary increases demand, which pushes prices up.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Transportation: <\/strong>25% \u2014 increase in bus, taxi, and gasoline tariffs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Business<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Average prognosis:<\/strong> 11.1% (-0.6%), median 10% (-0.4%).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Regions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Khorezm \u2014 12,8%;<\/li>\n<li>Tashkent \u2014 12,6%;<\/li>\n<li>Tashkent region \u2014 12,2%;<\/li>\n<li>Namangan, Jizzakh \u2014 10,1%;<\/li>\n<li>Andijan \u2014 10,2%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Industries:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Culture \u2014 13%;<\/li>\n<li>Cleavers \u2014 12,4%;<\/li>\n<li>Construction \u2014 11,9%;<\/li>\n<li>Agriculture \u2014 9,5%;<\/li>\n<li>Craft \u2014 10,2%;<\/li>\n<li>Medicine \u2014 10,3%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Drivers::<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>HCS \u2014 47%;<\/li>\n<li>Energy resources \u2014 45%;<\/li>\n<li>Transportation \u2014 33%;<\/li>\n<li>Raw materials \u2014 28%;<\/li>\n<li>Taxes \u2014 23%;<\/li>\n<li>Exchange rate \u2014 21%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Businesses are more concerned about housing and communal services, energy, and transport than the exchange rate \u2014 the soum is strengthening, reducing import costs.<\/p>\n<h3>Context<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Sixth month of decline:<\/strong> result of the Central Bank&#8217;s harsh policy (rate 14%), strengthening of the soum (dollar from 12,800 to 11,972), stabilization of food prices.<\/li>\n<li><strong>11.7% \u2014 minimum, but above the target:<\/strong> the Central Bank is aiming for 5-7% inflation. 11.7% \u2014 progress, but further reduction is required. <\/li>\n<li><strong>Income discrepancy:<\/strong> Wealthy people (19%) see higher inflation than poor people (10.6%) \u2014 premium goods price faster than basic ones.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Housing and Communal Services and Energy are the main drivers:<\/strong> tariff increases are hitting the population and businesses. The government plans to increase tariffs to cover the energy system deficit, which could push inflation up. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The population expects inflation of 11.7% for the next 12 months \u2014 the lowest in recent years.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":8688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_sharing_image":{"poster":"https:\/\/frank.uz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/690dae1e251c3.jpg","width":1200,"height":630,"template":"2bf59057","mode":"auto"},"_sharing_image_fieldset":{"Dv78f24rp1hU":8688,"YlB8HH34jIzY":"Inflation expectations updated minimum"},"pin_until":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2061],"tags":[2081,2118,2154,2152],"class_list":["post-12378","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-en","tag-cb","tag-economics","tag-inflation","tag-prices"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.0 (Yoast SEO v25.9) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Inflation expectations updated minimum &#8212; 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