{"id":13898,"date":"2025-12-15T11:47:02","date_gmt":"2025-12-15T06:47:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/frank.uz\/bez-kategorii\/inflation-expectations-in-uzbekistan-decreased-to-a-new-minimum\/"},"modified":"2025-12-15T11:47:02","modified_gmt":"2025-12-15T06:47:02","slug":"inflation-expectations-in-uzbekistan-decreased-to-a-new-minimum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/frank.uz\/en\/news-en\/inflation-expectations-in-uzbekistan-decreased-to-a-new-minimum\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation expectations in Uzbekistan decreased to a new minimum"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3>Why is this important<\/h3>\n<p>Inflation expectations reflect how the population and businesses assess future price dynamics and make financial decisions. Their decrease indicates a weakening of inflationary pressure in the perception of economic agents. For the regulator, these data serve as an important benchmark in the formation of monetary policy.  <\/p>\n<h3>Why is this important<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>The expected inflation rate in Uzbekistan has decreased to a new low after seven consecutive months of decline, according to the Central Bank&#8217;s survey <a href=\"https:\/\/cbu.uz\/upload\/iblock\/72e\/e21805r5gk3tkdng3494f8wx0qko03j8\/Aholining-inflyatsion-kutilmalari-hamda-sezilgan-inflyatsiya-darajasi-_noyabr-2025_.pdf\">report<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>The average inflation forecast for the next 12 months was 11.5%, decreasing by 0.2 percentage points compared to October and by 3.2% year-on-year. <\/li>\n<li>The median indicator of inflation expectations of the population decreased by 0.3% over the month and reached 10%.<\/li>\n<li>Inflation expectations of entrepreneurs also continued to decline: the average indicator was 10.5%, the median \u2014 9.6%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Numbers and facts<\/h3>\n<p>By region:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Tashkent region \u2014 12,8%;<\/li>\n<li>Surkhandarya region \u2014 12,3%;<\/li>\n<li>Navai region \u2014 12%;<\/li>\n<li>Tashkent and Khorezm regions \u2014 \u043f\u043e 10,4%;<\/li>\n<li>Samarkand region \u2014 10,5%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>By occupation:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>household services \u2014 13,6%;<\/li>\n<li>pensioners \u2014 12,5%;<\/li>\n<li>civil servants \u2014 12,1%;<\/li>\n<li>communal food \u2014 9,3%;<\/li>\n<li>agricultural sector \u2014 10%;<\/li>\n<li>tourism \u2014 10,4%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>By income level:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>more than 30 million soums \u2014 17,8%;<\/li>\n<li>20\u201330 million soums \u2014 14,6%;<\/li>\n<li>from 15 million soums \u2014 12,3%;<\/li>\n<li>up to 2 million soums \u2014 10,2%;<\/li>\n<li>2\u20134 million soums \u2014 10,5%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Inflation expectations factors:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>increase in HCS tariffs \u2014 49%;<\/li>\n<li>rising energy prices \u2014 40%;<\/li>\n<li>rising food prices \u2014 26%;<\/li>\n<li>transportation expenses \u2014 24%;<\/li>\n<li>increase in wages \u2014 23%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>By region:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Samarkand region \u2014 12,6%;<\/li>\n<li>Namangan region \u2014 11,3%;<\/li>\n<li>Jizzakh region \u2014 11,2%;<\/li>\n<li>Fergana, Bukhara and Tashkent regions \u2014 below 10%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>By industry:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>education \u2014 12,4%;<\/li>\n<li>construction \u2014 12,2%;<\/li>\n<li>medicine \u2014 12%;<\/li>\n<li>craftsmen \u2014 8,8%;<\/li>\n<li>industry \u2014 9,9%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Inflation expectations factors:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>HCS tariffs \u2014 46%;<\/li>\n<li>prices for energy resources \u2014 42%;<\/li>\n<li>transportation expenses \u2014 30%;<\/li>\n<li>fluctuations in exchange rates \u2014 19%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Context<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>The seven-month decline in inflation expectations indicates a more restrained perception of price increases by the population and businesses.<\/li>\n<li>The gap in expectations between groups with different income levels shows the uneven perception of inflation.<\/li>\n<li>The fact that tariffs for utilities and energy resources remain among the key factors indicates that it is these expenditure items that continue to form inflationary forecasts.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The 12-month average inflation forecast fell to 11.5% after seven months of decline.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":13888,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_sharing_image":{"poster":"https:\/\/frank.uz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/693fbec306a5c.jpg","width":1200,"height":630,"template":"2bf59057","mode":"auto"},"_sharing_image_fieldset":{"Dv78f24rp1hU":13888,"YlB8HH34jIzY":"Inflation expectations in Uzbekistan decreased to a new minimum"},"pin_until":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2061],"tags":[2480,2154],"class_list":["post-13898","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-en","tag-central-bank","tag-inflation"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.0 (Yoast SEO v25.9) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Inflation expectations in Uzbekistan decreased to a new minimum &#8212; 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