Why is this important
Inflation expectations affect the real behavior of consumers, investors, and companies. Their stabilization is positive for monetary policy, but shifting the focus to domestic costs requires new solutions from regulators.
What happened
- The population expects inflation at 12% (−0.2 p.p. by August), businesses — 11.7% (−0.1 p.p.).
- The share of those concerned about exchange rates decreased from 55% (Dec. 2024) to 24% in September. For businesses — from 52% to 22%.
The following came to the forefront:
- The rise in utility costs concerns 46% of the population and 44% of businesses.
- Increase in fuel and energy prices — 41% of respondents
- Raw material price increases — 26% of entrepreneurs are concerned (growth from 24%).
The main daily inflation triggers are:
- Increase in the price of meat and dairy products — 57% (+5 p.p.)
Rent increase — from 13% to 16%
By social groups:
- Pensioners experience inflation more strongly — 14.3%
- Residents of Tashkent — 13.9%
- People with income above 30 million soums — up to 16.9%
- Optimism — among agrarians (11.4%) and in Khorezm (10.8%)
What they say
The Central Bank believes that inflationary expectations “demonstrate signs of stabilization”. Analysts note a structural shift: now inflation is perceived as a result of internal problems — tariffs, logistics, raw materials.
Context
Stabilizing inflation expectations is a key factor in easing monetary policy. However, internal factors (tariffs, rent, energy resources) are increasingly dominating, reducing the impact of external economic improvements. Regulators will have to take these structural shifts in inflation drivers into account when adjusting rates and budgeting.
