Why is this important
Inflation expectations among the population and businesses remain one of the key indicators for monetary policy and assessing price pressure in the economy. Despite a slight decline in expectations in April, residents and entrepreneurs continue to expect significant price increases, primarily due to utility services, fuel, food, and transportation costs. For the Central Bank, this indicates that risks to further slowing inflation remain and that strict monetary conditions still need to be maintained.
What happened
- The Central Bank published data on inflation expectations among the population and businesses for April 2026. Expectations regarding price growth over the next 12 months decreased among both residents and entrepreneurs compared to the previous month.
- In April, inflation expectations among the population stood at 10.6 percent, while expectations among entrepreneurs reached 10.3 percent. At the same time, rising costs of utility services, fuel and energy resources, food products, transportation expenses, as well as exchange rate fluctuations, remain the main factors behind possible price increases.
- The regulator also separately presented data on inflation perceived by the population. At the end of April, this indicator remained at the previous month’s level and amounted to 11.1 percent.
Numbers and facts
- A total of 3,475 residents and 1,700 business representatives participated in the survey on inflation expectations.
- Among the population, the highest level of inflation expectations was recorded among pensioners at 12.6 percent, while the lowest level was among students at 9 percent. Among entrepreneurs, the highest expectations were observed in the culture and arts sector at 12 percent, while the lowest were in transport services at 9 percent.
- Regionally, the highest inflation expectations among residents were recorded in the Tashkent region at 11.7 percent, while the lowest were in Karakalpakstan at 9.6 percent. Among entrepreneurs, the highest figure was registered in Tashkent City at 11.4 percent, and the lowest in Karakalpakstan at 9.2 percent.
- Residents associated the highest perceived inflation with rising prices for meat and dairy products, electricity and gas, gasoline and fuel, medicines, as well as fruits and vegetables.
- In April, 56 percent of respondents reported an increase in meat and dairy product prices, compared to 48 percent a year earlier.
- The highest level of perceived inflation was recorded in the Kashkadarya region at 12.9 percent, while the lowest was observed in the Fergana region at 9.5 percent.
Context
- For the economy, a decline in inflation expectations is considered a positive signal, since expectations among residents and businesses directly influence consumer behavior, price formation, and demand.
- However, the indicators remain significantly higher than the current level of official inflation, indicating that strong price pressure continues to persist.
- For consumers and businesses, utility tariffs, fuel, food, and transportation costs remain the key drivers of inflation expectations.
- This means that even if overall inflation slows down, residents continue to feel the increase in the prices of everyday goods and services more strongly than official statistics indicate.
