Why is this important
Feeling inflation reflects how citizens perceive price changes in everyday life and often has a stronger impact on consumer behavior than official figures. A decrease in inflationary sentiment may indicate a stabilization of the price environment and public expectations. For the Central Bank, such data serve as an indicator of the effectiveness of the monetary policy being implemented.
What happened
- In Uzbekistan, perceived inflation continued to decline — the Central Bank came to this conclusion based on the results of a population survey conducted in November.
- The average and median price increase estimates for this month have decreased compared to previous months.
- The highest inflationary sensations were recorded in individual regions, occupational groups, and income categories.
Numbers and facts
- In November, the average price increase was 11.8% and decreased by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous two months.
- The median indicator decreased by 0.3 p.p. and amounted to 10.2%.
- Among the regions, the highest score was recorded in Andijan region — 13.2%, followed by Tashkent region — 12.8% and Jizzakh region — 12.3%.
- In Tashkent, the indicator was 11.5%, which is lower than the national average.
- The lowest values were noted in Khorezm — 10.7%, Karakalpakstan — 11% and Syrdarya region — 11.3%.
- Among the professions, the highest ratings were given by household service workers — 12.9%, civil servants — 12.8%, and pensioners — 12.6%.
- The lowest indicators were recorded in the food service sector — 10.2%, as well as in the agricultural and transport sectors — 10.5%.
- Respondents with an income of 30 million soums rated the price increase at 21.4%, in the group with an income of 10-15 million soums the indicator was 14.1%, and in the category of 20-30 million soums — 14%.
- In groups with incomes up to 4 million soums, price increases were below 11%.
- The increase in prices for meat and dairy products was noted by 49% of respondents.
- Electricity and gas, fuel and medicines were indicated by 27% of respondents.
- 23% of respondents noted an increase in the price of fruits and vegetables compared to 22% in October, and 19% of respondents noted an increase in the price of clothing and footwear compared to 17%.
- The share of mentions of egg price increases decreased from 18% to 14%, oil — from 19% to 18%, construction materials — from 17% to 14%.
- Rice received the lowest share — 6%, sugar — 7%, household services — 8%, as well as educational services, repair and bread — 9%.
Context
- A decrease in the average and median estimates of perceived inflation indicates a weakening of inflationary pressure on public perceptions.
- Differences between regions, professions, and income groups demonstrate the unevenness of price changes and the sensitivity of individual categories of citizens to the increase in the cost of goods and services.
- The concentration of mentioning rising prices in food and utility categories reflects the persistence of key sources of inflationary sentiment.
