Why is this important
The perceived inflation shows how the population perceives price increases in everyday life, regardless of official indices. This indicator directly reflects the pressure on households and consumer expectations. The discrepancy between perceived and official inflation increases social sensitivity to prices and influences citizens’ economic behavior.
What happened
- In December, the level of perceived inflation of the population in Uzbekistan increased by 0.2 percentage points and reached 12%, according to the Central Bank.
- The indicator is calculated based on a monthly survey of the population conducted by the regulator.
- The increase in perceived inflation was recorded against the backdrop of an increase in the share of respondents who noted the increase in prices for certain goods and services, as well as differences between regions and population groups in terms of the level of perception of price increases.
Numbers and facts
- During 2024-2025, the perceived inflation rate fluctuated within the range of 12-15%, and in December 2025, it averaged 12.0%.
- The highest level of perceived inflation was recorded in Tashkent – 14.3%, with an official annual inflation rate of 7.3%.
- In Kashkadarya region, the indicator was 14.1% with an official 11.7%, in Tashkent region – 13.8% with an official 12.8%.
- The lowest perceived inflation rate was recorded in the Khorezm region – 10.4%, while the official rate was 10.7%.
- According to respondents, meat and dairy products contributed the most to the growth of perceived inflation – 48% of respondents (in November – 49%).
- An increase in the price of gasoline and fuel was noted by 37% of respondents compared to 27% a month earlier.
- Vegetables and fruits accounted for 33% (in November – 23%), electricity and natural gas – 29% (27%), medicines – 23% (27%).
- 22% of respondents named fares and transportation services as the most expensive compared to 13% a month earlier.
- Growth in perceived inflation was recorded among citizens with incomes of 2-4 million, 7-10 million, and 15-30 million soums, while the average indicator for all groups was 12.0%.
Context
- The increase in perceived inflation in December is primarily related to the price increase of basic and most noticeable goods and services for households.
- The substantial jump in gasoline and transportation has strengthened inflationary expectations even with moderate dynamics of official figures.
- Regional differences indicate an uneven perception of price pressure across the country.
- In recent years, it has been consistently exceeding the official inflation rate, especially in large cities and economically active regions.
